Ideas on the Future of the Mobile Marketplace

July 7, 2010

I especially love mobile conferences because there are always tons of predictions. These predictions usually take the form of a hockey stick, so the narrative is rather predictable: up is the only way to go.

Fortunately, there was little of this fantasy at the recent Qualcomm Uplinq conference in San Diego. Here the developers were in charge and, though gaming applications were always top-of-mind among the brethren, these folks were not chasing play money.

There were some interesting forward-looking sessions including: “Where Will Mobile Apps & Devices Be 5 Years from Now?” I think attendees must have liked the title because about 500 showed up for what was correctly called a Super Session in a very crowded room.  Stacy Higginbothan (moderator), Senior Writer, GigaOM, led a lively conversation. Some takeaways:

• Mobile devices will become increasingly thinner, lighter, and flexible limited only by the size of a pocket (or purse).
• Personalized, location-based content will become more central to the mobile experience as will location-based, real-world gaming.
• In the future the focus will not be primarily on the device screen or operating “speed” but on the desire of the consumers to have all their connected experiences “synchronized.”
• The more mobile embraces applications like Augmented Reality, the more emphasis there will be on cloud computing. The cloud will also figure prominently in local data storage.
• Algorithms will increasingly play a part in developing smart and intelligent apps that will be cloud-based.
• Displays will continue to improve, especially for screens under 5 “.
• Apps are successful because of the User Experience, the discoverability, and the scale. When the browser can deliver similar benefits, the consumer and the eco-system will shift too. The question is: what is the best platform for the UE?  It is not a case of the apps vs. the browser. This discussion will become more interesting with widespread adoption of HTML5. 

Let me close with a few comments from a session that explored user engagement within the application, presented by Jon Jackson, CEO, Mobile Posse, Inc.

• Jackson reminded us that mass market phones or feature phones are alive and well. Not everyone owns a smartphone.
• Users tend to go through specific lifecycles with their handset, carriers and apps.
• Regarding engagement with apps, the time of day and the day of the week matter.
• The first 10 days after downloading an app are most important. Engagement tends to drop over time as does the ability to influence consumer actions, such as click-to-call.
• Touch screen users tend to be more engaged and rate content higher than users without touch screens.
• Design matters: design changes within the app can increase consumer engagement.

In yesterday’s post I reviewed a session by Qualcomm’s Denise Lund on what mobile consumers are looking for in both content and apps. Her conclusion: there is absolutely a market for paid content on mobile devices.

This refrain echoed throughout the conference.

Chuck McCullagh