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I wrote earlier about the importance of Google Analytics, even though I don’t fully understand that dark science. For those who are looking for a broader explanation of why data and analytics are so pervasive and important, I strongly suggest you read The Numerati by Stephen Baker (Houghton Mifflin).
I like the book for a number of reasons, other than it’s an easy read. I found a number of mentions of Dave Morgan, late of Tacoda and AOL (and now launching Simulmedia in the TV advertising space), who has spoken at MPA and quotes data as if it’s poetry—and to him it is. Morgan’s voice is a reassuring leit motif throughout this volume.
Baker’s thesis is short and sweet: “mathematicians and computer scientists are in a position to rule the information in our lives. I call them the Numerati.” Neurobiology figures in this equation. We are not far from figuring out what type of people process certain ads.
But sometimes life intervenes. Baker writes that “A generation ago, a crew of math whizzes led by Myron Scholes and Fisher Black focused their mastery of probability on finance, where they calculated risk and put prices on it. This led to a panoply of new financial products, from options to hedging strategies. It was a math revolution on Wall Street. The mathematicians were replacing hunches, wholesale, with science.”
This rapture doesn’t sound as spellbinding given the degree to which these new financial instruments contributed to the current economic crisis.
I know; don’t blame the academics.
One paragraph does not a book make. The Numerati is well-written and well-researched. Baker explores the impact of the numerate for the worker, shopper, blogger, voter, patient, terrorist, and lover. Numbers don’t discriminate and we are all equal opportunity subjects and objects. And to paraphrase Google’s Avinash Kaushik, numbers don’t respect faith-based propositions.
One strength of the book is that it is alarmingly even and perhaps even serene in tone—this is a compliment—in discussing the impact data has on our lives. There is no place to hide. Companies like IBM “will not only break down each worker into a set of skills and knowledge. The same systems will also divide their days and weeks into small periods of time—hours, half-hours, eventually even minutes.” We have seen the impact in the editorial workplace as articles move online. Now supervisors can count how many people read each article. As the author notes, the issue is really what is worth counting and who does the math.
We hear a lot of talk these days about behavioral and “contextual targeting” but as Baker notes this tagging of clothing—a layer of semantic detail—has serious implications. And smart shopping carts, derailed a few years ago because the computers were too pricey and analytics primitive, are coming back. The opportunity lies in the fact that shoppers on average forget 11% of the items they intend to buy.
Baker concludes by addressing three myths that misinform any discussion of numbers and data: there are word and numbers people; the Numerati are in control; and those who master numbers make all the money. I’m a word person and struggled with trigonometry. But he’s probably right; I did that to myself. I am pleased to hear that the numbers guys aren’t making all the money.
Reviews are short-hand; books are long form. The Numerati is an eloquent and stunning look at how data drives and defines us. And this is not a passing fad like that something called Web 1.0. Data can be considered a 21st century cultural archetype where a lot of collective meaning resides. All of us need to come to grips with the implications of this archetype, especially the word guys who struggled with trig. It’s not too late for the liberal arts major.
Charles McCullagh
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